The Arab spring 2.0 had its seeds sown during the revolutionary protests of Sudan and Algeria when the people of their respective countries decided to overthrow their dictators and install democracy. Today the protests have spread across West Asia in 3 more countries Lebanon, Iraq and Iran. Each of these countries are facing a sort of revolution at different pace and intensity.
Will they be successful? Many of us have this question but only the future has the answer for it. However, let us see an overview of about it.
The Path till now
In Sudan the revolution has almost bore it’s success as the negotiations are almost coming to an end after a grueling battle for establishing democracy. They overthrew the 32 year rule of Omar Al Bashir. After which they had to overcome another obstacle of suppressing their army who took control of the government. Today the negotiations are going on and are expected to be complete within another couple of months.
But the story in Algeria is a bit complicated the army still wields a lot of power and is hell bent on cracking down the protests. Unlike in Sudan, the protests in Algeria don’t have a centralised and coherent plan about the aftermath of their stated objective, this holds true in Iraq and somewhat in Lebanon. The protesters in Iraq, Lebanon and Algeria must decide a leader and a group of well read individuals to decide on the objective and have a coherent strategy as to how to deal with the eventuality of taking over the government. The Iraqi prime minister has offered to resign and so is the President of Lebanon Saad al Hariri, which is a partial victory for the people and a feather in the cap for those who believe in democracy.
Learning from mistakes
The protesters in Iraq, Algeria and Lebanon have achieved their first objective of overthrowing the government. The next step is the crucial one as that will decide their future and the success of their struggle. If the alternative government formation doesn’t result in a greater say for the people and if the new ruler turns out to be autocratic then all the protests will result in futility. As they have seen what had happened to themselves in the previous decade. When Algeria overthrew the FIA party and when Iraq overthrew Saddam Hussein. The governments went into ineffective hands and the consequence was a global nightmare of the formation of the dreaded Islamic state of Iraq and Levant (ISIL). So the protesters better learn from their earlier mistakes.
The Iranian scenario
The protests in Iran were dealt an iron hand with close to 800 people killed and an internet blockade imposed. The protests have since then died down and the regime still has a good strategy to overcome a coup attempt. The government has a revolutionary guard corps who are well equipped and better trained to deal with an insurgency. Moreover the people in Iran are divided over the removal of this regime. This is partially because a huge section of people have been convinced that this is a conspiracy of the triumvirate of USA, Saudi Arabia and Israel, whom the Iranians deem to be ‘evil’.
Success or futile?
As of now the direction of the protests are in a right direction which if does not prepare a coherent strategy and have a leader (s) has the possibility of loosing the battle. Already the protests in Iraq are taking a sectarian turn which if amplifies in that direction then the protests may turn into a civil war. Still the protesters have resisted it and have taken measures to drive the sectarian elements out. As of now the revolution is anyone’s game but there is a high possibility of making the Arab spring 2.0 a great success and reign in a new future for the middle East, provided the protesters are united and chart out a good constitution that is durable and has the ability to take into account the aspirations of all the sections of the society.